NOThe last few years has seen a lot of talk of a coming multi-polar world. To get there, however, we will first have to be lucky enough to survive the decline of the US as the world’s self-declared hegemon. And even then, we will only have returned to a tense Cold-War mentality. Recent US actions show that it may very well be preparing for such a world.
Anyone who knows the United States understands that it will not be enough for it to simply control the resources of its region. Even though the US has tightened its grip on Venezuela, Cuba (and Canada), this is not enough. The US was unable to achieve Plan A with the proxy war against Russia (Russia survived, the Ruble is not rubble), but it certainly achieved Plan B which was to make Europe its de-industrialized vassal.
The US main goal, however, is still to weaken its number one adversary, China. As the leader of its own region in the emerging multi-polar order, China has considerable leverage over the US. But China is also vulnerable in some areas. For example, China’s fossil fuel import dependence is 73% for oil and 61% for gas.
Crashing the World Economy
Iran has long threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked. While this threat has been tested by both the US and Israel in the past, Iran has thus far refrained from taking that drastic step. The current threats against Iran are so serious, however, that Iran has tried to make it clear that this time it is not bluffing. But the problem is, the US might have flipped the script. This time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may very well be part of the US plan B.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil are transported through the strait daily and over 65% of that goes to Asian markets, especially China. The US, by comparison, is a net energy exporter and imports less than 5% of its oil through the Strait. Now that the US has secured its sphere of influence (and supply lines), it may just believe that the supply line through the Strait (as well as the continued existence of Israel) may well be expendable. This would not directly harm China but it would weaken it, and thereby level the playing field for the US.
US plan A may still succeed. Nothing would better please Washington planners than to get Iranian resources back under US control. But Plan B – the complete destruction of the region – is always an option. As history from Vietnam, through Libya and Iraq, and to Ukraine has shown, the US is always ready to accept plan B.